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19 publications
This report reviews energy policies and programmes adopted at the local and regional level in Indonesia and how they relate to the country's net zero emission goals. It sets out the policy landscape across regions and discusses what subnational governments contribute to the national energy transition agenda.
A harmonised panel of climate-tagged public expenditure across 34 Indonesian provinces covering fiscal years 2018 through 2024, with consistent sectoral classification and documentation of tagging methodology differences between jurisdictions.
Reza Fadhilah & Rina Hapsari
Indonesia's approach to authorising credits for international transfer will shape both its NDC accounting and the depth of its domestic market. This brief sets out the trade-offs between restrictive and permissive authorisation regimes and recommends a staged framework tied to NDC trajectory review.
Nadia Safira & Bayu Pranata
Mangrove restoration is frequently proposed as a high-integrity source of carbon credits. We assess feasibility under Indonesian conditions, focusing on three constraints rarely addressed in methodology documents: overlapping tenure claims in coastal zones, permanence risk under aquaculture price cycles, and the working-capital gap between restoration cost and first credit issuance.
Adi Nugroho & Maya Kusuma
This report models the cost of retiring 22 coal-fired units in Java ahead of contractual end-of-life, accounting for outstanding debt, take-or-pay obligations, decommissioning liabilities and replacement capacity. We find substantial heterogeneity in cost per tonne of avoided emissions across the fleet, implying that sequencing matters as much as aggregate funding.
Hendra Wijaya & Farhan Maulana
We trace results-based climate payments through every institutional layer between the national environment fund and forest-adjacent villages in Central Kalimantan. Combining administrative records with a survey of 400 households, we estimate that transaction costs absorb a substantial share of disbursed value and that timing mismatches between payment cycles and household needs reduce the behavioural effect of the remainder.
Adi Nugroho, Dinda Larasati & 1 others
Ecological fiscal transfers reward sub-national governments for conservation outcomes through the intergovernmental transfer system. This brief sets out the three key design choices — indicator selection, formula weight and revenue source — and simulates their distributional effects across Indonesian provinces. We show that indicator choice determines whether transfers reward existing forest stock or marginal conservation effort, and argue for a hybrid formula.
Maya Kusuma & Dinda Larasati
Using transaction-level data from the first twenty-four months of IDXCarbon trading, we examine price formation in Indonesia's compliance carbon market. Order book depth is thin and concentrated among a small number of power-sector participants. We find limited evidence of informationally efficient pricing: prices respond to regulatory announcements with a lag of several sessions and show weak co-movement with international benchmarks. We discuss the market design changes most likely to improve depth.
Bayu Pranata & Nadia Safira
We assemble a panel of climate-tagged expenditure across 34 Indonesian provinces from 2018 to 2024 and test whether tagging changes allocation. We find that tagging alone has no detectable effect on the level of climate expenditure, but that provinces which pair tagging with outcome indicators and public reporting increase climate-relevant capital spending by 11 to 14 percent relative to the control group. The results suggest that fiscal transparency infrastructure, not classification per se, is what shifts budgets.
Rina Hapsari, Reza Fadhilah & 1 others
This working paper maps the social impacts of agricultural commodity trade against the Sustainable Development Goals. It examines how trade-related social outcomes can be linked to the SDG framework to inform policy and sustainability assessment.
This working paper proposes a framework for understanding the social impacts of agricultural trade. It outlines the concepts and analytical structure needed to assess how trade in agricultural commodities affects producers, workers and communities.
Drawing on implementation experience in East Kalimantan, West Java and East Nusa Tenggara, this paper identifies the institutional conditions under which climate budget tagging produces usable information rather than compliance paperwork.
Rina Hapsari & Reza Fadhilah
